Sunday, November 23, 2014

Potentially Important Geometry in DJIA and SPX

There are quite a few geometric relationships that line up in the 17,800 to 18,000 area on the DJIA. The last three rally phases have been similar in points gained in the Dow, ranging from 3,239 to 3,262 points each. The current rally leg has gone 3176 points so far which is in the ball park of the other rally legs. The time for each leg has been 209 to 286 trading days. The current leg is 283 tds so far.

There are a number of other short and long term timing elements that line up around 11/21/14, some of which are shown on the charts below. The next timing confluence is around 12/5/14, which may be part of the topping process if the market is topping. The next CIT timing I have appears to be around 12/31/14 to 1/5/15 area.

The charts below are annotated with price and time analysis I'm looking at that may portend a turn in the stock indices. I still think the earlier-posted analysis on the Value Line Arithmetic chart has the most important geometric confluence suggesting a significant top may be in the making. If the VLE, DJIA, and SPX all move above their respective projected resistance points (by more than 1% on a closing basis), I think that would likely invalidate the assumption of an intermediate (or major) top here. Keep in mind that technical analysis has really not worked well since the quantitative counterfeiting programs have under way for the last 5+ years and I have no way of knowing if that will change now. It will change at some point though, of that I'm quite sure.

Kim Rice 11/23/14

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