Sunday, November 17, 2013

SP 1800 Price & Late November Timing


SP/ES 1800 looks important. It completes a .618 expansion of prior leg. If the market blows significantly through 1800, I don't have much in the way of geometric projections until mid 1900s and possibly up to 2106 area. Analysis is on the chart. So far NQ has pushed a bit over the price confluence area, but not substantially so....yet. If SP and NQ both slice right on through to the other side and continue higher after 12/1/13, I suspect final highs may be much higher. We'll see. Timewise, 11/26 to 11/29/2013 has a lot of symmetry for potential reversal area; however we are pretty close to that window now.

An ideal set-up for a top would be a bit of a pull-back next week with a divergent retest of the highs around Thanksgiving. Sentiment is certainly ripe for a rug-pull before the end of the year. Additionally, there is a pretty good timing confluence lining up late Dec 2013 to early Jan 2014 for what I'm guessing may be a low in stocks. That low, if it occurs, may be followed by a final rally into Feb/Mar 2014 before a larger decline gets under way. Keep in mind, however, that TA and cycle work have not been working well for the last few years.

Kim Rice