Transports Most Overbought in History of the Index

Of course things can get even more overbought but the charts below show, per the monthly RSI indicator, the transports are currently the most overbought they have ever been. There are also some channel lines and long-term cycles lining up that may portend an important reversal soon. If the parabola continues much further, then I guess QE infinity will continue to rule the markets.

Kim Rice 11/25/14

Potentially Important Geometry in DJIA and SPX

There are quite a few geometric relationships that line up in the 17,800 to 18,000 area on the DJIA. The last three rally phases have been similar in points gained in the Dow, ranging from 3,239 to 3,262 points each. The current rally leg has gone 3176 points so far which is in the ball park of the other rally legs. The time for each leg has been 209 to 286 trading days. The current leg is 283 tds so far.

There are a number of other short and long term timing elements that line up around 11/21/14, some of which are shown on the charts below. The next timing confluence is around 12/5/14, which may be part of the topping process if the market is topping. The next CIT timing I have appears to be around 12/31/14 to 1/5/15 area.

The charts below are annotated with price and time analysis I'm looking at that may portend a turn in the stock indices. I still think the earlier-posted analysis on the Value Line Arithmetic chart has the most important geometric confluence suggesting a significant top may be in the making. If the VLE, DJIA, and SPX all move above their respective projected resistance points (by more than 1% on a closing basis), I think that would likely invalidate the assumption of an intermediate (or major) top here. Keep in mind that technical analysis has really not worked well since the quantitative counterfeiting programs have under way for the last 5+ years and I have no way of knowing if that will change now. It will change at some point though, of that I'm quite sure.

Kim Rice 11/23/14

DJIA Price Projection: 17,886 Area

Since the DJIA cash has moved above the ideal target of 17,620, I thought I would look for the next confluence point. Applying a little bit of geometry, I find there is a confluence of multiple projections that line up around 17,886 (+/- 20 points or so).

For the moment the indices are playing out pretty much as anticipated in the 10/22/14 post - "Even if the DJIA, SPX and other indices go to new highs per scenario 2 above, I don't think the VLE will make new highs (another probe of the current highs maybe)." The Valueline Arithmetic index has probed the highs, but has not broken out (so far).

The sentiment is getting to extremes of bullishness by some measures. It seems unlikely a major bull move is unfolding with current sentiment and deteriorating technicals. It's much more likely to be a major blow-off top underway, with the next confluence point being around 17,886 basis cash DJIA.

Kim Rice 11/19/14

Rare Expanding Diagonal in DJIA?

It appears that scenario #2 in the previous blog post is playing out, which is a rare expanding diagonal triangle. I think it's a fairly high probability this is the correct count from an E-wave and Edwards and McGee perspective. However, there are no absolutes when it comes to forecasting the markets. The invalidation point for this count would likely be a weekly close above 18,100. That would probably be too far for a normal 5th wave overthrow as the presumed pattern completes. Some timing and price projection targets are referenced on the charts posted below.

Kim Rice 11/2/14

Two Potential Scenarios for Stocks

The assumed ending diagonal I posted here, long before the ED pattern was mentioned before anyone else that I know of, took a while to play out. It may be the correct count but it still could morph into an expanding terminal fifth wave as shown in Scenario 2 below. Scenario 1 is based on potential time and price analogs with the past that could bring on some motivated selling if the market continues to track.

Kim Rice 10/22/14

Scenario 1 - Possible Crash Setup

The current DJIA pattern has a lot of similarity with previous tops before market crashes. Crashes don't happen often, so forecasting one has to be considered a low probability outcome. That being said, as noted on the following charts, price and time are tracking fairly close with a 9.9% decline in 18 trading days. If we follow that with a 62% to 78.6% retracement peaking around trading day 27 (+/- a day or two), the market would have satisfied step two in a potential crash sequence. The only step after that is an actual crash. If step 2 occurs, all one can do is place some bets and see what happens. Whether or not a crash will actually occur can not be known with any degree of certitude. Below are charts showing the 1929 and 1987 crash setups, which are followed by a chart of the current market with annotations regarding time and price symmetries. The charts were prepare on 10/19, prior to the latest ramp up in the markets.



Scenario 2 - Possible Expanding Terminal Wedge

The alternate count, which is think has about the same probability of occurring as scenario 1, is posted below. It shows that the ED pattern which has become somewhat more popular in the last few weeks may not be an ED at all. I think it looks like an ED and meets the requirements of an ED, but one can't rule out the potential to morph into an expanding wedge with one more new high to come. This count becomes primary if the DJIA and SPX exceed 78.6% retracements of the wave down from 9/19/14.




Lastly, I thought I'd post an update to the rather important analysis posted earlier on the Value Line index. The VLE exceeded the target a bit, but I found some additional geometric projections added to the update that very precisely add up to a monumental top in place. Even if the DJIA, SPX and other indices go to new highs per scenario 2 above, I don't think the VLE will make new highs (another probe of the current highs maybe).

Stock Market Chop Should End Soon

Based on some timing and pattern analysis I'm looking at in stocks, the sideways chop since the 6/24/14 outside day reversal should end 6/30 or 7/1 area and begin trending down thereafter. The next timing confluence I see is 7/15/14 +/- a trading day or two. My best guess regarding polarity is that it will likely be a low in that time-frame, but won't know until we get there.

Kim Rice 6/30/14

Internals Weakening for Stocks & SPX Projection

For those that remain bullish on stocks, what is bullish about the following chart?



Here's a chart showing an interesting fibonacci projection I've been looking at for a potential top in stocks. We got within about 1 point of the exact target on 6/23/14.



Kim Rice 6/26/14

Major Geometric Confluence at 4575 area in Value Line Index

Posted below are several charts showing the dynamic price projections and perfect fibonacci relationships at the 4575 area on VLE, all based on log scale measurements. This is additional, very compelling evidence of a potential major top right at or near current prices as of 6/20/14. So now we have a major price confluence occurring in the window of the very long-term time projections posted here on 6/15/14. The pattern and wave relationships of the two legs up from the 2009 low appear to be a fractal of the larger two-leg pattern from the 1990 low to the present, and the 2009-2014 legs up appear to be a smaller fractal of the 1990 to 2000 legs up. Under the multiple fractal scenario, the correction from May to Oct of 2011 is the small fractal of the 2007 to 2009 down leg, and this presumed top in 2014 is at least equivalent to the 2007 top.

Analysis and additional comments are annotated on the charts posted below.

Kim Rice 6/22/14

DJIA Ending Diagonal Still Valid - For the Moment

Posted is an update of the DJIA with comments and analysis annotated on the chart.

Kim Rice 6/18/14

9972 Trading Day Symmetry in Stocks

The first chart posted below shows the very long-term picture of the DJIA with a potential important time symmetry at 6/10/14. The 9972 trading-day time period matches the 1932 to 1968 period but the number itself is also interesting because it's a factor of two different multiples of phi (161.8 x 61.63 = 9972). I think this adds to evidence of an important top being made. I would guess it's a fairly high probability that 6/10/14 marked the top of the bull move from the 2009 lows.


However, per the following chart, I would guess there's at least a 10 to 20 percent chance that the DJIA and SPX make one more push to new highs unless those indicies break the Feb 2014 lows.


Of course there is always a chance that all of this analysis is incorrect and the market just continues on up without a significant correction.

Kim Rice 6/15/14

Potential Terminal Patterns and Invalidation Points

With the blow-off in stocks the last few days occurring on good news with a backdrop of extremely bullish sentiment readings, it appears a lot of indicies may be completing terminal patterns. The 6/3/14 projected swing high inverted and became a swing low, which is most evident in the Russell 2000 chart.

Timing wise, something I hadn't posted earlier may be important. 6/6/14 is 1440 (144x10) tds from the 9/19/08 spike top and 550 (55x10) tds from the 4/2/13 top. This presents a compelling Fibonacci time relationship. Historically, this sort of order-of-magnitude Fib time-series relationship has marked some important turns. I have no idea if it will have an impact in this blow-off environment, but sentiment seems ripe. We'll see.

Following is an update to the ending diagonal count on the DJIA posted recently. Since the market never pulled back and now appears to be in a 5th wave thrust over the upper trendline, I've modified the count a bit and noted the invalidation level on the chart.


The count on the SPX has different swing points but also appears to be an ending diagonal.


The following two charts of SPX show some additional geometry and trendlines that typically would indicate at least short term reversal points, if not the final waves up in the markets. In my analysis there are potentially important projections to 1950 area and, if that is exceeded, the 1965 area looks particularly interesting.


The SOX Index has an incredibly large divergence with most other indicies - it is nowhere near all-time highs. It has multiple projections for a potential intermediate or long-term top in the 630 area (+/- 10 points), which is not too far above Friday's close.


Lastly, the VIX chart also appears to be in a terminal falling wedge pattern that is almost complete. If that pattern is correct, it implies the VIX will move much higher in the coming months.

Kim Rice 6/8/14

DJIA Megaphone Update

Posted below are charts showing an update to the presumed megaphone pattern in the DJIA. The first is the long term view. The second chart shows a zoom in of the current price action. Analysis is annotated on the charts.

Kim Rice 6/4/14

Transports and Trendlines

The DJT index has been about the hottest sector around and is rapidly running up to two separate trend-lines that converge in the 8170 to 8200 range. We'll see fairly soon if this area acts as resistance just as we are coming into a timing window for a potential reversal 6/3/14 (+/- a day or two).

Kim Rice 6/2/14

Potential Short-Term Swings in Russell Following Projected 6/3/14 Top Window

This is a follow-up to the previous blog post. No time for a chart, but additional analysis points to a potential swing low on or near 6/10/14, followed by a rally back up near or above the 6/3 top (if there is a top in the 6/3 window). If a rally does ensue out of the 6/10 area, I would look for final swing highs around 6/16/14 before the larger swing down into the 7/10 to 7/11 area (+/- a trading day or two). As mentioned in earlier posts, I'm doing analysis and projections using the Russell 2000 lately, which is what these current projections are based on. The way the SP keeps levitating, I wouldn't be surprised if 6/16/14 window brings a new all-time highs while the Russell should not get much above the 50-70 percent retrace area of the decline since March. As usual, any of the projected turns could invert regarding the polarity. So, whichever way the market is trending into a CIT date, I would look for evidence of a reversal in trend.

Best guess summary:

Top around 6/3/14
Low around 6/10
Top around 6/16
Then larger decline into 7/10-11 area.

Kim Rice 6/1/14

Projected CIT Dates for Stock Market

The S&P and DJIA are too easily manipulated, so I've been doing all timing analysis using Russell 2000 for the last few months. Lately the cycles have been working in this broader index, but I have no idea if that will continue. The chart posted below is annotated with the next few projected turns.

Kim Rice 5/26/14

Ending Diagonals in Stocks?

Is see the DJIA and S&P indices appear to be tracing out ending diagonal patterns, after which the normal expectation would be a sharp reversal to the downside. For example, posted below is a chart of the ES Mini futures 30 minute chart showing the presumed ending diagonal pattern. There was also an ending diagonal in the 3rd wave position of the larger diagonal shown on the chart, which appears to be a larger fractal of the smaller diagonal. Whatever the pattern is it should end fairly soon and no later than around 5/20/14 I would think.

Kim Rice 5/8/14

Evidence of an Important Top in Stocks is Mounting (for now)

In my analysis there is mounting evidence that an important top is likely being made in stocks. Some of the secondary indexes like the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq have been weakening and leading to the downside, while the DJIA and S&P continue to be levitated near the highs.

Posted below are charts with some additional analysis annotated on each chart. Some of these are updates to charts and analysis posted earlier, with recent market action confirming the prior analysis; i.e., the megaphone patterns in DJIA and Russell 2000 are still valid. As noted on some of the charts, it's too early to tell if the tops are actually in yet, so breaches of the highs should be respected for possible runs to higher targets. The very long-term chart of the DJIA has what I believe to be very compelling analysis, showing a triple confluence at current highs. The projections are from the 1929 top and 1932 low, the 1937 top and 1973 top, and the 1974 low. These are some of the most important swing points of the last century. I've posted some analysis on this in the past, but I've made some adjustment to the projections based on the premise (my premise) that the 7/8/32 low of 40.56 printed in the historical record is probably not correct. Based on the geometric structure and relationships with other major swing points over the last 100 years, I know this is a brazen assumption, but I believe the actual low on that day in 1932 was 37.69. On log scale analysis, this makes a significant difference in long-term projections from that low.

Not included on the charts is the current astro set-up. With the recent passing of the Grand Cardinal Cross followed by a new moon and solar eclipse on the same day, we'll see over the next few weeks or months if any significant price destruction occurs. In past major astro setups, like 1987 for example, there was a fairly similar signature in the heavens that preceded the crash by several months. I suppose it's fairly unlikely to happen in the next few months (mainly because most crashes tend to occur in the Fall), but it is something to be aware of just in case.

Kim Rice 5/4/14

Next Swing High in Stocks Due 4/23/14

My analysis for this is based on some proprietary timing methods, so no charts today. After a bit more fine tuning, my timing work is pointing to 4/23/14 as the on-time day for the next swing high in stocks. If we do top around this time, my analysis suggests the on-time day for a potential low is 5/16/14 followed by a bounce and a lower low likely around 7/11/14. I would give the dates a trading day or two either way, but would be most alert for potential reversal on the on-time date. Price-wise, I think the swing down into mid May, if it occurs, should break below the 4/11/14 low and perhaps approach or even breach the 2/3/14 low. It's all theoretical speculation, as is every forecast about potential future events.

Kimston

More Timing Analysis for Stocks

Here is a chart with some analysis I did on 2/14/14 but never got around to posting. It has some additional timing projections/symmetries for potential important turn in late Feb to early March (presumably a top).



The 980td lows, shown on this chart from the previous blog post, still looms in late March....unless the cycle inverts.

Kim Rice 2/19/14

Update on Stock Market Analysis and Timing for Feb/Mar 2014

I think the top is probably in on the DJIA, though a significant move above the 12/31/13 highs would flush that idea. The high on 12/31/13 was exactly at an expression of pi in time: 31.4159 years from the 8/9/82 low, as noted on this chart posted 12/29/13. That translates to 11,467 cal days calculated as 31.4159 x 365. If you add 11,467 cal days (or 31.4159 years) to 8/9/82 it equals 12/31/13. Also, the DJIA appears to have 5 waves down from the top, whereas most other indicies are difficult to count as 5s down. So, it's very possible that some indicies run to new highs into Feb/Mar timeframe while the DJIA does not (or perhaps the DJIA double tops).

The price projections to the 4400 area for the valueline index shown on the charts in the previous post were pretty much hit exactly at the highs a few weeks back. Still can't rule out a run to the 4438 area (or higher) if the topping process isn't done. Here's an update of the VLE chart showing an intraday high so far of 4414.


Here are updates to several charts posted recently. The DJIA stopped right at the upper trend line. The Russell 2000 had a bit of a throw-over on wave 5, about the same as the throw-under at wave 4.


The following chart is annotated with analysis showing potential timing of turns in Feb and Mar 2014. Cycles and time squares work for a while and then just stop without notice. I have no idea if the cycles and timing projections noted on this next chart will work or not, but they do present areas to look for trades/reversals.


Lastly, here is a chart showing the top of the Tulip Bulb Mania back in the 1600s. As I've noted in the past, Feb 2014 marks the 377 (fibonacci) year anniversary of that top which was followed by a total collapse. I suppose our current stock market could rhyme with that period, given the fact that the whole market is one giant bubble largely supported by central banks around the world. However, even if we are making a major top, I suspect the move down wouldn't be anywhere near as dramatic.


Kim Rice 2/9/14