Since the DJIA cash has moved above the ideal target of 17,620, I thought I would look for the next confluence point. Applying a little bit of geometry, I find there is a confluence of multiple projections that line up around 17,886 (+/- 20 points or so).
For the moment the indices are playing out pretty much as anticipated in the 10/22/14 post - "Even if the DJIA, SPX and other indices go to new highs per scenario 2 above, I don't think the VLE will make new highs (another probe of the current highs maybe)." The Valueline Arithmetic index has probed the highs, but has not broken out (so far).
The sentiment is getting to extremes of bullishness by some measures. It seems unlikely a major bull move is unfolding with current sentiment and deteriorating technicals. It's much more likely to be a major blow-off top underway, with the next confluence point being around 17,886 basis cash DJIA.
Kim Rice 11/19/14
No comments:
Post a Comment