There are two set of major long-term swing points in stocks that project to a fairly narrow time window of 7/17/13 to 7/23/13 for a possible change in trend. The projections on the charts posted below are both based on calendar-day counts. Time projections based on trading-day counts are sometimes more accurate, but I don't have data that will calculate trading-day counts going back to 1932. If the trading-day count turns out to be the valid count for theses projections, I would estimate they would point to a window in mid August for the potential CIT.
The third chart shows a long-term moving average of the TRIN indicator which I uploaded a few days ago. It showed the market to be quite overbought and in an area where this indicator sometimes marks important highs in stocks. In the last few days this indicator has stayed about the same to slightly more overbought. At the very least, the TRIN is not in an area that historically has marked major lows before multi-month advances.
Kim Rice 7/15/13
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