Stocks: Divergences, Price Projections, and Major Time Confluence around 8/7/13

So far, the market peaked exactly on the Fib timing projected for 7/23/13 area based on the long-term swing points posted here in the most recent blog entry.

Below are a few charts showing some significant divergences that frequently precede market reversals:


Here's a chart showing a possible timing analog between the 780 trading day rally that peaked in 1987 and the current rally from 7/01/10 that will equal 780 trading days on 8/2/13.


The next chart shows a possible 1.272 projection confluence around 15,760 on the DJI, which would have symmetry with the 2002 to 2007 1.272 expansion.


Lastly, the next chart shows a major confluence of daily, weekly and monthly timing projections that point to the week of 8/9/13, with all daily projections pointing to 8/7/13. I think 8/7/13 area could either mark the final top, a lower high before a meltdown, or a crash low.

Kim Rice

Long-Term Time Geometry in Stocks

There are two set of major long-term swing points in stocks that project to a fairly narrow time window of 7/17/13 to 7/23/13 for a possible change in trend. The projections on the charts posted below are both based on calendar-day counts. Time projections based on trading-day counts are sometimes more accurate, but I don't have data that will calculate trading-day counts going back to 1932. If the trading-day count turns out to be the valid count for theses projections, I would estimate they would point to a window in mid August for the potential CIT.

The third chart shows a long-term moving average of the TRIN indicator which I uploaded a few days ago. It showed the market to be quite overbought and in an area where this indicator sometimes marks important highs in stocks. In the last few days this indicator has stayed about the same to slightly more overbought. At the very least, the TRIN is not in an area that historically has marked major lows before multi-month advances.

Kim Rice 7/15/13