Miners and bonds selling off into timing for possible low

My timing analysis has been projecting the mid Oct 2016 period for quite some time as a possible low in the mining shares. It looks like the on-time day would be 10/13, so I would give it a window of 10/12 to 10/18. One never knows if the market will reverse at one of these timing confluence points, but I will be looking to close short positions (hopefully on Thursday or Friday of this week) and possibly start nibbling on the long side a bit (though I may decide to wait till Monday or later to do any buying). I still have long-term cycles in the underlying metals due ideally in Feb 2017, so I probably won't do any significant buying till we get through that. My best guess is that we get some kind of low in October and bounce or chop into Nov-Dec time-frame, then sell off again into Feb.

Bonds have a timing confluence that lines up pretty much the same as the window for the metals. So I assume we may get a low in bonds in this window and possible chop or rally into final top (or lower peak) in Feb 2017.

I don't have a crystal ball so, as always is the case when forecasting possible market behavior, this is all highly speculative and subject to being entirely wrong.

Kim Rice 10/11/16

Update on Price and Time Confluence on HUI

I decided to give this a little more room before pulling the plug on DUST. We closed slightly above 282 on HUI yesterday 8/2, but I have important timing for possible reversal in metals this week. I'm changing this to a time stop. If the metals and miners haven't rolled over by Monday the 8th, I'll pull the plug and stand aside until I see another short or long opportunity with better risk parameters than currently in place. Fortunately, it's a relatively small short position compared to the size of the long position I road up.

Kim Rice 8/3/16

Bonds Update

Analysis using arithmetic scale (instead of log) points to a confluence at 177-16 area for potential top. Also TLT log chart points to potential turn at 145. In the next few days I'm looking to add to Sep bond shorts at 177-15 and buying TBT when/if TLT hits 145. Raising buy stops on Sep bonds to 178-16.

Kim Rice 7/10/16

Major price and time confluence on HUI index

As of yesterday (7/6/16) I'm out of longs and short the metals and miners. There is a major confluence of price projections that converged at 272 and time projections lined up with 7/6. I may post a chart later if I have time. Bought some DUST looking for an initial low in metals complex around 7/18-19/2016 area. Will stop out position if HUI closes above 282.

Kim Rice 7/7/16

Bond Top?

I shorted Sep bonds this morning at 175-08. There are multiple time projections that line up for a potential turn today and lots of geometric price projections for a possible turn at 175-11. So we have a massive price and time confluence. I'm using a wide stop (178-12) because the bonds frequently overshoot targets before reversing.

Kim Rice 7/1/16

GDX and Metals

Just a quick update on GDX - if they can push it much past 23, the next confluence target I have is around 28.

Silver may be lifting off with the anticipated spike move posted about for the last few months. If so, it would be great if played a bit of catch-up with a move to 18.50 or as possibly as high as 26. In any case, I still expect a collapse into October, so I hope I can figure out where to get out in the next few weeks or months.

Kim Rice 4/11/16

Metals and Miners Update

As annotated on the charts posted below, GDX is nearing potentially important resistance in the 23 area. Although in my last post they managed to fake me out of most of the miners, it turned out be a capitulation move. When there was no follow-through to the downside, I bought back into a relatively small position in NUGT which has now more than tripled. Fortunately, I also held on to a position in HMY which has gone up about seven fold. I'll be looking to close out mining shares and potentially go short GDX at 23 with a tight stop. I'm raising stops on NUGT and HMY now in case the rally in miners fails and GDX doesn't reach 23.

The move up in silver mining shares (along with the gold miners), while silver goes essentially sideways, typically portends a catch-up phase for silver to come. I don't know if it will happen this time, but I think there is better than a 50% chance of a violent vertical move up before we peak and potentially trend lower into the forth quarter of 2016. The ideal timing for a top in silver and gold is sometime from mid to late April 2016, assuming the rally has not ended as of last week. I'm still holding long futures in the metals as well as long-term call options on SLV. However, I"m watching closely for signs of a failure here at the trendline resistance shown below, and have stops entered on the futures longs. It's not really practical to use stops on options, so those are a little tougher to protect profits.


Kim Rice 3/20/16