Tuesday, October 11, 2016

Miners and bonds selling off into timing for possible low


My timing analysis has been projecting the mid Oct 2016 period for quite some time as a possible low in the mining shares. It looks like the on-time day would be 10/13, so I would give it a window of 10/12 to 10/18. One never knows if the market will reverse at one of these timing confluence points, but I will be looking to close short positions (hopefully on Thursday or Friday of this week) and possibly start nibbling on the long side a bit (though I may decide to wait till Monday or later to do any buying). I still have long-term cycles in the underlying metals due ideally in Feb 2017, so I probably won't do any significant buying till we get through that. My best guess is that we get some kind of low in October and bounce or chop into Nov-Dec time-frame, then sell off again into Feb.

Bonds have a timing confluence that lines up pretty much the same as the window for the metals. So I assume we may get a low in bonds in this window and possible chop or rally into final top (or lower peak) in Feb 2017.

I don't have a crystal ball so, as always is the case when forecasting possible market behavior, this is all highly speculative and subject to being entirely wrong.

Kim Rice 10/11/16

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