Bonds, Miners and Stock Market Update.

Bonds:
I closed out Dec bond shorts (entered shorts on July 1st at 175-08) and flipped to long side today near the end of trading at 163-03. Stop on longs is 161-00.

Miners:
I also closed out DUST and some GDX puts I been holding since early August because of the potential CIT timing mentioned in the previous post. Haven't flipped long yet. I have projections down to 5.80 area on JNUG but may not get there. If I miss a big move up from current lows, I'll look to get catch a low in Feb 2017.

Stocks:
Stocks look like they need a washout to the downside in the near future and several cycles I'm looking at are supporting that notion. I bought some SDS (double inverse ETF) Mar calls during the early rally in stocks today. Hopefully we will get a sell-off into 1st half of November. There is potential for a sizable move down, but there is still risk of rallying to my long-term target of 2210 t0 2220 area basis SPX before a larger correction starts.


As usual, this is all highly speculative and may or may not play out as projected.

Kim Rice 10/14/16

Miners and bonds selling off into timing for possible low

My timing analysis has been projecting the mid Oct 2016 period for quite some time as a possible low in the mining shares. It looks like the on-time day would be 10/13, so I would give it a window of 10/12 to 10/18. One never knows if the market will reverse at one of these timing confluence points, but I will be looking to close short positions (hopefully on Thursday or Friday of this week) and possibly start nibbling on the long side a bit (though I may decide to wait till Monday or later to do any buying). I still have long-term cycles in the underlying metals due ideally in Feb 2017, so I probably won't do any significant buying till we get through that. My best guess is that we get some kind of low in October and bounce or chop into Nov-Dec time-frame, then sell off again into Feb.

Bonds have a timing confluence that lines up pretty much the same as the window for the metals. So I assume we may get a low in bonds in this window and possible chop or rally into final top (or lower peak) in Feb 2017.

I don't have a crystal ball so, as always is the case when forecasting possible market behavior, this is all highly speculative and subject to being entirely wrong.

Kim Rice 10/11/16