I came across a very long-term inflation-adjusted chart of stocks posted by Doug Short on the Advisor Perspectives website. Doug's research and charts are pretty much based on fundamental economic data. Since the data I have only goes back to 1900, I thought I would do some analysis on this chart because it shows a major swing low in 1877. What I found appears to be supportive to my on-going long-term analysis projecting 2013 as a major timing point for change in trend. The duration of 1877 to 1929 is 52 years. If you expand that duration by 1.618 it results in 84.136 years, added to 1929 = 2013. You can see this graphically with the Fibonacci time grid I've added to the chart.
The second chart shows margin debt, which I also found posted by Doug on Advisor Perspectives site. I think it requires more conviction to load up on margin than it does to vote one way or another in a weekly poll. Therefore it would seem more instructive as to sentiment than some of the surveys with manic swings from bullish to bearish each week.
Kim Rice 8/25/13
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