Carnage in the Miners

Silver is still holding the 14 yr trendline for the moment and gold is still acting well, so I'm still holding positions in futures. However, with the breakdown in miners under the lows from last month, I'm getting much lower projections. For example, I think XAU has a reasonable chance of running down to 23.30 area at some point. So I dumped all the miners and mining share ETF positions. Stop on silver remains at weekly close under 13. If the pattern and trendline continue to hold together for silver, I don't really think it moves up much until crude bottoms. In my work, that isn't scheduled to occur until about the end of the month give or take a few trading days.

Kim Rice 1/19/16

Silver's Ascending Triangle Bottom, and Mining Share Analysis

As shown on the charts below, the current pattern in silver looks link an ascending triangle and is very similar to the major low in 2008 and the intermediate swing low in 2012. If this analog continues to track those earlier basing patterns, it may portend another week or two of chop within the pattern before heading sharply higher over the next several months.

Also posted are several charts of miners that I didn't get around to posting last week. The analysis on these is quite compelling for an important intermediate low in the making. This is just a small sampling of the many mining shares that have incredible long-term setups in place for low-risk entry on the long side.


My stop on all positions in futures, mining shares, NUGT, GDX, GDXJ, USLV, UGLD and long-term SLV calls remains a weekly close under 13 on silver. If that were to happen, I think it would likely indicate a pattern failure for the ending diagonals in gold and silver and a failure of the near-term, presumed ascending triangle in silver.

Kim Rice 1/10/16

Metals Update 1/3/16

While there is a lot of geometric, Ewave and other technical analysis pointing to a potential intermediate low in the making for metals and miners, there is no certitude with anything in the markets. If the patterns and projects begin breaking down and failing, I will be running for cover. As noted several times, there are still nearby but lower projections that have not been hit. Posted below are a few charts annotated with analysis that shows where support may come in if the recent lows get taken out. Specifically, there is a pretty significant confluence for silver in the 13.10 to 13.40 area and for gold in the 1010 to 1018 area.

Also shown on one of the charts is some timing analysis with projections for possible lows around 1/5/16 +/- 2 trading days, assuming cycles are working in the markets. Hopefully the federal reserve and central bank game of whack a mole with gold and silver is coming to an end soon. Price is holding up inside the patterns and long-term trendline in silver, so far, and cycles should bottom and turn up in the next few trading days. If not heading north by mid Jan, I would assume cycles aren't engaged.

The long-term trendlines are still holding on some of the miners mentioned several weeks back. When I get some time I'll post some charts with that analysis.

Kim Rice 1/3/16