SP 1800 Price & Late November Timing

SP/ES 1800 looks important. It completes a .618 expansion of prior leg. If the market blows significantly through 1800, I don't have much in the way of geometric projections until mid 1900s and possibly up to 2106 area. Analysis is on the chart. So far NQ has pushed a bit over the price confluence area, but not substantially so....yet. If SP and NQ both slice right on through to the other side and continue higher after 12/1/13, I suspect final highs may be much higher. We'll see. Timewise, 11/26 to 11/29/2013 has a lot of symmetry for potential reversal area; however we are pretty close to that window now.

An ideal set-up for a top would be a bit of a pull-back next week with a divergent retest of the highs around Thanksgiving. Sentiment is certainly ripe for a rug-pull before the end of the year. Additionally, there is a pretty good timing confluence lining up late Dec 2013 to early Jan 2014 for what I'm guessing may be a low in stocks. That low, if it occurs, may be followed by a final rally into Feb/Mar 2014 before a larger decline gets under way. Keep in mind, however, that TA and cycle work have not been working well for the last few years.

Kim Rice

Geometric Confluence on Emini NQ in 3380 to 3400 area

There are ten separate sets of projections that point to 3380 - 3400 area basis Emini-NASDAQ 100 Futures (Continuous Contract). There is no certainty in market forecasting, but there is a pretty high probability of a significant reversal or even a major top if/when this confluence area is tested (it's only 40 points above the 10/18/13 close). Based on empirical evidence, the markets like symmetry and historically have had trend changes when multiple projections line up in a given area (in price or time). There is also quite a lot of overhead resistance in the 3380-3400 area from the trading range of the 2000 top. The analysis is included on the charts below.

The first chart shows the long term picture with eight projections to this confluence area.


The second chart shows two additional projections to the same confluence area based on some fairly recent swing points.


Kim Rice 10-19-13

SP - More Time Geometry

Posted below is a bit longer-term SP chart that shows some highly speculative analysis of potential timing symmetries with the 2007 top.

Kim Rice 10/2/13

10/3/13 update: There is a typo on the chart. It should say "there is a pretty consistent 282 trading day cycle low due around 12/31/13" (not "12/13/13").

SPX Cycles and Symmetry

Posted below are a few charts with analysis and comments annotated. The first chart shows potential symmetry with the 2011 top. If it continues to track, 10/15/13 may be an area to look for a low, followed by 11/27/13 for a possible top. At the moment I'm thinking the highs are in and a rally into late November, if it happens, would be to a lower high or double top. However, in this market I wouldn't rule anything out and a run to 1775 area would be an AB=CD measured move from the 2009 low. The second chart is just a linear time square of 3292 trading days between major tops in 1987 and 2000.

Kim Rice 10/1/13

Megaphone Patterns

I've seen a number of posts by technicians pointing out that the next resistance on the Dow Industrials is around 16,000 where the upper trendline is. Some of those posts then speculate the market will launch through the trendline after a modest correction.




Well, I would point out that the ETF for the DOW 30 has already hit the upper trendline.



I would also point out that the last major megaphone pattern was back in the 1966 to 1973 period. In the S&P, the market never made it to the upper trendline. After the 1973 peak, the market melted down into the 1974 low and took out prior swing lows of the pattern in the process.



There are no guarantees when forecasting market movements, but the weight of the evidence I'm looking at (and have posted over the last few months) suggests we follow the path after the 1966-73 megaphone pattern.

Kim Rice 9/8/13

Stocks Long Term Inflation Adjusted Chart

I came across a very long-term inflation-adjusted chart of stocks posted by Doug Short on the Advisor Perspectives website. Doug's research and charts are pretty much based on fundamental economic data. Since the data I have only goes back to 1900, I thought I would do some analysis on this chart because it shows a major swing low in 1877. What I found appears to be supportive to my on-going long-term analysis projecting 2013 as a major timing point for change in trend. The duration of 1877 to 1929 is 52 years. If you expand that duration by 1.618 it results in 84.136 years, added to 1929 = 2013. You can see this graphically with the Fibonacci time grid I've added to the chart.

The second chart shows margin debt, which I also found posted by Doug on Advisor Perspectives site. I think it requires more conviction to load up on margin than it does to vote one way or another in a weekly poll. Therefore it would seem more instructive as to sentiment than some of the surveys with manic swings from bullish to bearish each week.

Kim Rice 8/25/13

Is the Top In on Stocks? Probably.

Posted below are a number of charts with annotations and analysis to follow-up on recent posts regarding the major long-term price and time projections that the DJI and SP ran into over the last week or so. You may want to review recent posts to see the major long-term geometric projections in the SP that, so far, have marked the top.

The first chart updates the timing projections from 1932, 1982, 1987, and 2009. One thing not annotated on the chart is that this web of timing also ties into a major top from 1796. As noted earlier, 8/10/13 is 1618 cal days from the 3/6/2009 low, and 8/12/13 is 1618 weeks from the 8/09/1982 low (which is 7 x 1618 days). The next expansion in time backwards would be 7 x 1618 weeks, which projects to 1796. I don't have charts back that far, but 1796 was the top of a bubble and start of the Panic of 1796-1797. Legislation enacted on 2/25/1797 kicked of an acceleration of the panic. If we rhyme with that period, late Feb to early Mar 2014 may kick off a panic wave down. That timing correlates with a confluence of a lot of projections which I will post in a future blog. In any case, a wave 2 rally into next Feb/Mar period might not end well.

Kim Rice 8/18/13