Potential Short-Term Swings in Russell Following Projected 6/3/14 Top Window

This is a follow-up to the previous blog post. No time for a chart, but additional analysis points to a potential swing low on or near 6/10/14, followed by a rally back up near or above the 6/3 top (if there is a top in the 6/3 window). If a rally does ensue out of the 6/10 area, I would look for final swing highs around 6/16/14 before the larger swing down into the 7/10 to 7/11 area (+/- a trading day or two). As mentioned in earlier posts, I'm doing analysis and projections using the Russell 2000 lately, which is what these current projections are based on. The way the SP keeps levitating, I wouldn't be surprised if 6/16/14 window brings a new all-time highs while the Russell should not get much above the 50-70 percent retrace area of the decline since March. As usual, any of the projected turns could invert regarding the polarity. So, whichever way the market is trending into a CIT date, I would look for evidence of a reversal in trend.

Best guess summary:

Top around 6/3/14
Low around 6/10
Top around 6/16
Then larger decline into 7/10-11 area.

Kim Rice 6/1/14

Projected CIT Dates for Stock Market

The S&P and DJIA are too easily manipulated, so I've been doing all timing analysis using Russell 2000 for the last few months. Lately the cycles have been working in this broader index, but I have no idea if that will continue. The chart posted below is annotated with the next few projected turns.

Kim Rice 5/26/14

Ending Diagonals in Stocks?

Is see the DJIA and S&P indices appear to be tracing out ending diagonal patterns, after which the normal expectation would be a sharp reversal to the downside. For example, posted below is a chart of the ES Mini futures 30 minute chart showing the presumed ending diagonal pattern. There was also an ending diagonal in the 3rd wave position of the larger diagonal shown on the chart, which appears to be a larger fractal of the smaller diagonal. Whatever the pattern is it should end fairly soon and no later than around 5/20/14 I would think.

Kim Rice 5/8/14

Evidence of an Important Top in Stocks is Mounting (for now)

In my analysis there is mounting evidence that an important top is likely being made in stocks. Some of the secondary indexes like the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq have been weakening and leading to the downside, while the DJIA and S&P continue to be levitated near the highs.

Posted below are charts with some additional analysis annotated on each chart. Some of these are updates to charts and analysis posted earlier, with recent market action confirming the prior analysis; i.e., the megaphone patterns in DJIA and Russell 2000 are still valid. As noted on some of the charts, it's too early to tell if the tops are actually in yet, so breaches of the highs should be respected for possible runs to higher targets. The very long-term chart of the DJIA has what I believe to be very compelling analysis, showing a triple confluence at current highs. The projections are from the 1929 top and 1932 low, the 1937 top and 1973 top, and the 1974 low. These are some of the most important swing points of the last century. I've posted some analysis on this in the past, but I've made some adjustment to the projections based on the premise (my premise) that the 7/8/32 low of 40.56 printed in the historical record is probably not correct. Based on the geometric structure and relationships with other major swing points over the last 100 years, I know this is a brazen assumption, but I believe the actual low on that day in 1932 was 37.69. On log scale analysis, this makes a significant difference in long-term projections from that low.

Not included on the charts is the current astro set-up. With the recent passing of the Grand Cardinal Cross followed by a new moon and solar eclipse on the same day, we'll see over the next few weeks or months if any significant price destruction occurs. In past major astro setups, like 1987 for example, there was a fairly similar signature in the heavens that preceded the crash by several months. I suppose it's fairly unlikely to happen in the next few months (mainly because most crashes tend to occur in the Fall), but it is something to be aware of just in case.

Kim Rice 5/4/14

Next Swing High in Stocks Due 4/23/14

My analysis for this is based on some proprietary timing methods, so no charts today. After a bit more fine tuning, my timing work is pointing to 4/23/14 as the on-time day for the next swing high in stocks. If we do top around this time, my analysis suggests the on-time day for a potential low is 5/16/14 followed by a bounce and a lower low likely around 7/11/14. I would give the dates a trading day or two either way, but would be most alert for potential reversal on the on-time date. Price-wise, I think the swing down into mid May, if it occurs, should break below the 4/11/14 low and perhaps approach or even breach the 2/3/14 low. It's all theoretical speculation, as is every forecast about potential future events.

Kimston

More Timing Analysis for Stocks

Here is a chart with some analysis I did on 2/14/14 but never got around to posting. It has some additional timing projections/symmetries for potential important turn in late Feb to early March (presumably a top).



The 980td lows, shown on this chart from the previous blog post, still looms in late March....unless the cycle inverts.

Kim Rice 2/19/14

Update on Stock Market Analysis and Timing for Feb/Mar 2014

I think the top is probably in on the DJIA, though a significant move above the 12/31/13 highs would flush that idea. The high on 12/31/13 was exactly at an expression of pi in time: 31.4159 years from the 8/9/82 low, as noted on this chart posted 12/29/13. That translates to 11,467 cal days calculated as 31.4159 x 365. If you add 11,467 cal days (or 31.4159 years) to 8/9/82 it equals 12/31/13. Also, the DJIA appears to have 5 waves down from the top, whereas most other indicies are difficult to count as 5s down. So, it's very possible that some indicies run to new highs into Feb/Mar timeframe while the DJIA does not (or perhaps the DJIA double tops).

The price projections to the 4400 area for the valueline index shown on the charts in the previous post were pretty much hit exactly at the highs a few weeks back. Still can't rule out a run to the 4438 area (or higher) if the topping process isn't done. Here's an update of the VLE chart showing an intraday high so far of 4414.


Here are updates to several charts posted recently. The DJIA stopped right at the upper trend line. The Russell 2000 had a bit of a throw-over on wave 5, about the same as the throw-under at wave 4.


The following chart is annotated with analysis showing potential timing of turns in Feb and Mar 2014. Cycles and time squares work for a while and then just stop without notice. I have no idea if the cycles and timing projections noted on this next chart will work or not, but they do present areas to look for trades/reversals.


Lastly, here is a chart showing the top of the Tulip Bulb Mania back in the 1600s. As I've noted in the past, Feb 2014 marks the 377 (fibonacci) year anniversary of that top which was followed by a total collapse. I suppose our current stock market could rhyme with that period, given the fact that the whole market is one giant bubble largely supported by central banks around the world. However, even if we are making a major top, I suspect the move down wouldn't be anywhere near as dramatic.


Kim Rice 2/9/14