Bonds, Miners and Stock Market Update.

Bonds:
I closed out Dec bond shorts (entered shorts on July 1st at 175-08) and flipped to long side today near the end of trading at 163-03. Stop on longs is 161-00.

Miners:
I also closed out DUST and some GDX puts I been holding since early August because of the potential CIT timing mentioned in the previous post. Haven't flipped long yet. I have projections down to 5.80 area on JNUG but may not get there. If I miss a big move up from current lows, I'll look to get catch a low in Feb 2017.

Stocks:
Stocks look like they need a washout to the downside in the near future and several cycles I'm looking at are supporting that notion. I bought some SDS (double inverse ETF) Mar calls during the early rally in stocks today. Hopefully we will get a sell-off into 1st half of November. There is potential for a sizable move down, but there is still risk of rallying to my long-term target of 2210 t0 2220 area basis SPX before a larger correction starts.


As usual, this is all highly speculative and may or may not play out as projected.

Kim Rice 10/14/16

Miners and bonds selling off into timing for possible low

My timing analysis has been projecting the mid Oct 2016 period for quite some time as a possible low in the mining shares. It looks like the on-time day would be 10/13, so I would give it a window of 10/12 to 10/18. One never knows if the market will reverse at one of these timing confluence points, but I will be looking to close short positions (hopefully on Thursday or Friday of this week) and possibly start nibbling on the long side a bit (though I may decide to wait till Monday or later to do any buying). I still have long-term cycles in the underlying metals due ideally in Feb 2017, so I probably won't do any significant buying till we get through that. My best guess is that we get some kind of low in October and bounce or chop into Nov-Dec time-frame, then sell off again into Feb.

Bonds have a timing confluence that lines up pretty much the same as the window for the metals. So I assume we may get a low in bonds in this window and possible chop or rally into final top (or lower peak) in Feb 2017.

I don't have a crystal ball so, as always is the case when forecasting possible market behavior, this is all highly speculative and subject to being entirely wrong.

Kim Rice 10/11/16

Update on Price and Time Confluence on HUI

I decided to give this a little more room before pulling the plug on DUST. We closed slightly above 282 on HUI yesterday 8/2, but I have important timing for possible reversal in metals this week. I'm changing this to a time stop. If the metals and miners haven't rolled over by Monday the 8th, I'll pull the plug and stand aside until I see another short or long opportunity with better risk parameters than currently in place. Fortunately, it's a relatively small short position compared to the size of the long position I road up.

Kim Rice 8/3/16

Bonds Update

Analysis using arithmetic scale (instead of log) points to a confluence at 177-16 area for potential top. Also TLT log chart points to potential turn at 145. In the next few days I'm looking to add to Sep bond shorts at 177-15 and buying TBT when/if TLT hits 145. Raising buy stops on Sep bonds to 178-16.

Kim Rice 7/10/16

Major price and time confluence on HUI index

As of yesterday (7/6/16) I'm out of longs and short the metals and miners. There is a major confluence of price projections that converged at 272 and time projections lined up with 7/6. I may post a chart later if I have time. Bought some DUST looking for an initial low in metals complex around 7/18-19/2016 area. Will stop out position if HUI closes above 282.

Kim Rice 7/7/16

Bond Top?

I shorted Sep bonds this morning at 175-08. There are multiple time projections that line up for a potential turn today and lots of geometric price projections for a possible turn at 175-11. So we have a massive price and time confluence. I'm using a wide stop (178-12) because the bonds frequently overshoot targets before reversing.

Kim Rice 7/1/16

GDX and Metals

Just a quick update on GDX - if they can push it much past 23, the next confluence target I have is around 28.

Silver may be lifting off with the anticipated spike move posted about for the last few months. If so, it would be great if played a bit of catch-up with a move to 18.50 or as possibly as high as 26. In any case, I still expect a collapse into October, so I hope I can figure out where to get out in the next few weeks or months.

Kim Rice 4/11/16